La Liga Week 36 Predictions: StatsLook Simulations for Valencia, Girona and Real Madrid

La Liga Week 36 Preview: StatsLook Simulations for Valencia, Girona and Real Madrid Matches

La Liga enters one of the decisive stages of the season with survival pressure, European ambitions and pride all colliding in Week 36.

StatsLook simulations project three very different scenarios across Friday night’s fixtures. Valencia and Rayo Vallecano appear almost impossible to separate, Girona face a high-pressure survival clash against Real Sociedad, while Real Madrid enter the Bernabéu as heavy favorites against already-relegated Real Oviedo.

Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano

StatsLook Match Simulation

• Valencia win: 24%

• Draw: 43%

• Rayo Vallecano win: 33%

Valencia come into the match after an important 1-0 away victory against Athletic Bilbao, moving slightly further away from the relegation zone. Carlos Corberán’s side now sits around 12th-13th place with 42 points, but consistency remains a problem.

Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, arrive unbeaten in their last five matches and sit just one point ahead of Valencia. Their recent form has been significantly stronger:

• 3 wins

• 2 draws

• only 4 goals conceded

The simulation projects a highly defensive game with very limited scoring opportunities:

• 84% probability that at least one team fails to score

• 56% Valencia clean sheet probability

• 63% Rayo clean sheet probability

The most likely scoreline is:

• 1-1 (24%)

Other likely outcomes include:

• 0-0

• 1-0

• 0-1

That aligns closely with the first meeting between the sides this season, which also ended 1-1.

Tactical Outlook

Valencia are expected to remain compact and cautious, especially given their injury list. Rayo’s aggressive pressing and transition game could make them slightly more dangerous despite weaker away form.

The absence of Isi Palazón is particularly important for Rayo, removing one of their main creative sources between the lines.

Team News

Valencia absences:

• Jose Copete

• Dimitri Foulquier

• Thierry Correia

• Lucas Beltrán

• Mouctar Diakhaby

Rayo Vallecano absences:

• Isi Palazón (suspended)

• Ilias Akhomach

• Luis Felipe

• Diego Méndez

Girona vs Real Sociedad

StatsLook Match Simulation

• Girona win: 43%

• Draw: 28%

• Real Sociedad win: 29%

This may be the most emotionally charged match of the night.

Girona are dangerously close to the relegation zone and enter the game winless in recent weeks. Despite their poor momentum, StatsLook simulations still give them a slight edge at home.

The model expects a more open match than Valencia-Rayo:

• 48% probability of both teams scoring

• 72% chance the match avoids a draw

Most likely scorelines:

• 1-0 (17%)

• 2-1

• 2-0

Girona continue struggling defensively after conceding 8 goals across their last five matches, but their urgency level is significantly higher than Real Sociedad’s.

Sociedad already secured European football through their Copa del Rey triumph and now enter the final weeks with less pressure. However, their recent league form has also been unstable:

• 3 draws

• 2 defeats

• 10 goals conceded in the last five matches

Tactical Outlook

Girona are expected to attack aggressively from wide areas, especially with Bryan Gil returning from suspension. Real Sociedad may still control possession phases, but their defensive transitions remain vulnerable.

The simulation slightly favors Girona largely because of motivational context and home urgency rather than overall squad quality.

Team News

Girona absences:

• Donny van de Beek

• Cristian Portu

• Vladyslav Vanat

Bryan Gil returns from suspension.

Real Sociedad absences:

• Oskarsson (suspended)

• Odriozola

• Zubeldia (doubt)

• Guedes (doubt)

Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo

StatsLook Match Simulation

• Real Madrid win: 68%

• Draw: 22%

• Real Oviedo win: 10%

Despite losing the title race to Barcelona, Real Madrid remain overwhelming favorites at the Bernabéu.

Real Oviedo have already been relegated and arrive with one of the weakest away records in La Liga:

• only 2 away wins all season

• 54 goals conceded overall

The StatsLook model projects Madrid dominance:

• 53% probability of a Real Madrid clean sheet

• 43% probability of winning without conceding

• 61% chance at least one team fails to score

Most likely scorelines:

• 2-1 (16%)

• 2-0

• 1-0

• 3-1

• 3-0

Madrid’s underlying attacking numbers remain elite:

• 2.0 goals per game

• 2.02 xG average

• dominant home record throughout the season

Mbappé Storyline

One of the key narratives is Kylian Mbappé’s possible return after resuming training. Reports suggest he remains highly motivated in the Pichichi race and could feature either from the start or off the bench.

Real Madrid still have several absences:

• Rodrygo

• Eder Militão

• Federico Valverde

• Ferland Mendy

• Arda Güler

• Dani Ceballos

Even with rotation and injuries, the gap in quality between the two sides remains substantial.

Team News

Real Oviedo absences:

• Eric Bailly

• Leander Dendoncker

• Brandon Domingues

• Kwasi Sibo (suspended)

StatsLook Simulation Center

Users can explore full match simulations, exact score probabilities, scenario distributions, xG projections and player impact analysis for every La Liga fixture directly on StatsLook.

Disclaimer

StatsLook simulates football matches using historical data, player-level metrics and contextual factors. All outputs reflect statistical distributions of possible match scenarios and should be interpreted as analytical insights rather than predictions or betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed.