Champions League Matchweek 3 predictions: StatsLook favourites

Inter, Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund stand out in StatsLook’s forecasts for Champions League Matchweek 3 on 20–21 October 2026. Inter have a 79% win probability, followed by Manchester City on 77% and Dortmund on 76%. Elsewhere, Slavia Prague are ahead of Fenerbahce in the model, while Lille have the higher win probability against Galatasaray.

Across the 18 fixtures, the strength of each favourite varies considerably. Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona are separated by just one percentage point, while Napoli versus Bodø/Glimt has an almost equal distribution across all three outcomes. Arsenal edging Bayern Munich and Como holding the advantage over Manchester United are among the other notable projections.

All kick-off times below are Turkey time: TRT (UTC+3).

Inter, Manchester City and Dortmund lead the forecasts

Inter’s 79% win probability is the highest of the matchweek. Manchester City follow on 77%, with Dortmund on 76%. Sporting CP, at 60%, and Liverpool, at 59%, are next.

That gap matters. A team with a 76–79% chance of winning has a substantially stronger projected advantage than one sitting between 51% and 55%. Having the highest probability among the three outcomes also does not necessarily mean a team has a better-than-even chance of winning.

For PSG–Barcelona and Napoli–Bodø/Glimt, the narrow differences provide little basis for identifying a clear favourite.

Tuesday 20 October: Fenerbahce host Slavia as PSG face Barcelona

Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund | 19:45 TRT

Result probabilities: Sabah 8% · Draw 16% · Borussia Dortmund 76%
Most likely score: 1-2 (21%)

Despite playing away, Dortmund have the third-highest win probability of the matchweek. Sabah’s 8% chance highlights the size of the projected gap between the teams.

The leading individual scoreline is 1-2 at 21%. Dortmund’s overall 76% win probability includes their other winning scorelines as well.

Fenerbahce vs Slavia Prague | 19:45 TRT

Result probabilities: Fenerbahce 29% · Draw 27% · Slavia Prague 44%
Most likely score: 1-2 (11%)

Slavia Prague hold the advantage in StatsLook’s forecast, with a 44% chance of winning compared with Fenerbahce’s 29%. The draw, at 27%, is close to the home side’s win probability.

Although Slavia have the highest individual outcome probability, the combined chance of a Fenerbahce win or a draw is 56%. The visitors lead the forecast, but the distribution leaves considerable room for the hosts to take points.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Paris Saint-Germain 38% · Draw 26% · Barcelona 37%
Most likely score: 2-1 (8%)

Only one percentage point separates PSG and Barcelona. Alongside the 26% draw probability, that makes this one of the closest contests in the model.

The leading scoreline, 2-1, accounts for just 8% of the displayed distribution. With probabilities spread across different results, PSG’s small numerical advantage should not be interpreted as a strong prediction of a home win.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Manchester City 77% · Draw 15% · AEK Athens 8%
Most likely score: 2-1 (16%)

Manchester City rank second behind Inter for win probability this matchweek. With the draw at 15% and an AEK victory at 8%, City are among the clearest favourites.

A high win probability does not, however, establish the likely margin of victory. The model’s leading individual scoreline is 2-1 at 16%.

Liverpool vs Villarreal | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Liverpool 59% · Draw 19% · Villarreal 22%
Most likely score: 2-1 (17%)

Liverpool lead with a 59% chance of winning. Villarreal’s 22% win probability is slightly higher than the likelihood of a draw.

The detailed StatsLook output also gives a 70% probability of more than 2.5 total goals and a 62% probability of both teams scoring. Those figures suggest goals could feature prominently in a match where Liverpool hold the overall advantage.

VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 29% · Draw 23% · Atlético Madrid 48%
Most likely score: 1-2 (14%)

Atlético Madrid are 19 percentage points ahead of Stuttgart. Their 48% win probability is the highest of the three outcomes.

However, a Stuttgart win and a draw together account for 52%. Atlético have the projected edge, while the distribution still leaves the match open to other outcomes.

Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Napoli 34% · Draw 33% · Bodø/Glimt 33%
Most likely score: 1-1 (15%)

With all three outcomes almost equally likely, this is the most evenly distributed forecast of the matchweek. Napoli’s one-percentage-point advantage provides little justification for treating the hosts as strong favourites.

The leading scoreline is 1-1 at 15%. Both the draw and a Bodø/Glimt victory sit very close to Napoli’s win probability.

Porto vs PSV | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Porto 52% · Draw 24% · PSV 24%
Most likely score: 2-1 (16%)

Porto’s win probability is slightly above 50%, while a PSV victory and a draw each carry a 24% chance.

The hosts have the advantage, but the combined 48% probability of the other two outcomes indicates a competitive forecast. The leading scoreline is 2-1 at 16%.

Roma vs Slovan Bratislava | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Roma 55% · Draw 21% · Slovan Bratislava 24%
Most likely score: 2-0 (14%)

Roma lead with a 55% chance of winning. Slovan Bratislava’s win probability is three percentage points higher than the draw probability.

StatsLook identifies 2-0 as the most likely individual scoreline at 14%. That figure applies only to this specific result; Roma’s overall win probability includes their other winning scenarios.

Wednesday 21 October: Galatasaray visit Lille as Arsenal travel to Munich

Como vs Manchester United | 19:45 TRT

Result probabilities: Como 42% · Draw 24% · Manchester United 34%
Most likely score: 2-1 (13%)

Como are eight percentage points ahead of Manchester United, with a 42% chance of winning. United have a 34% win probability, while the draw stands at 24%.

The home side’s advantage is smaller than those seen in the matchweek’s strongest favourites. StatsLook’s leading scoreline is 2-1 at 13%.

Lille vs Galatasaray | 19:45 TRT

Result probabilities: Lille 54% · Draw 25% · Galatasaray 21%
Most likely score: 1-0 (19%)

Lille have a 54% chance of winning, compared with Galatasaray’s 21%. At 25%, the draw is more likely than an away victory.

The combined probability of Galatasaray avoiding defeat is 46%. The model’s leading scoreline is 1-0 at 19%, although that individual result should be assessed separately from the match’s overall goal distribution.

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Bayern Munich 32% · Draw 27% · Arsenal 41%
Most likely score: 1-2 (7%)

Arsenal are nine percentage points ahead of Bayern Munich. The hosts have a 32% chance of winning, with the draw at 27%.

Although 1-2 is the leading displayed scoreline, it carries just a 7% probability. Arsenal’s 41% overall win probability should therefore be distinguished from the much lower likelihood of that specific result.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Inter 79% · Draw 14% · Shakhtar Donetsk 7%
Most likely score: 2-1 (14%)

Inter have the highest win probability across all 18 fixtures. Shakhtar Donetsk have a 7% chance of victory, while the draw stands at 14%.

That makes Inter the matchweek’s strongest favourite. The leading scoreline of 2-1, at 14%, also illustrates the difference between an overall win probability and the likelihood of an individual score.

Club Brugge vs Lens | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Club Brugge 48% · Draw 22% · Lens 30%
Most likely score: 2-1 (10%)

Club Brugge lead with a 48% chance of winning. Lens have a 30% win probability, with the draw at 22%.

The combined probability of the hosts failing to win is 52%, underlining the limits of their projected advantage. The leading 2-1 scoreline accounts for 10%.

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Real Madrid 51% · Draw 22% · RB Leipzig 27%
Most likely score: 2-1 (13%)

Real Madrid’s win probability is just above 50%. A Leipzig victory and a draw together account for the remaining 49%.

The forecast favours the hosts, but the gap is considerably smaller than those for Inter, Manchester City and Dortmund. The most likely score is 2-1 at 13%.

Real Betis vs Feyenoord | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Real Betis 47% · Draw 22% · Feyenoord 31%
Most likely score: 2-1 (12%)

Real Betis have the highest win probability at 47%. Feyenoord stand at 31%, while the draw carries a 22% chance.

Betis’ 16-percentage-point advantage is notable, although the other two outcomes total 53%. The home side’s edge therefore comes with a substantial degree of uncertainty.

Aston Villa vs Viking | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Aston Villa 55% · Draw 22% · Viking 23%
Most likely score: 2-1 (14%)

Aston Villa have a 55% chance of winning. A Viking victory and a draw are almost equally likely.

Although Villa lead the forecast, the scenarios in which their opponents take points retain a combined 45% probability. StatsLook’s leading scoreline is 2-1 at 14%.

Sporting CP vs LASK | 22:00 TRT

Result probabilities: Sporting CP 60% · Draw 22% · LASK 18%
Most likely score: 2-1 (16%)

Sporting CP have the fourth-highest win probability of the matchweek, behind Inter, Manchester City and Dortmund.

A LASK victory carries an 18% chance, while the draw stands at 22%. Sporting’s 60% win probability makes them one of the stronger home favourites in this round.

How to read the most likely score

A team’s win probability combines the scenarios in which they win by different scorelines. The probability of a particular score applies only to that individual result.

For example, Inter have a 79% chance of winning, while their leading scoreline of 2-1 carries a 14% probability. In Bayern Munich versus Arsenal, an Arsenal victory has a 41% probability, compared with 7% for the displayed 1-2 score.

The most likely score is therefore not a guaranteed outcome. An individual 1-0 or 2-1 projection also cannot establish the overall probability of a particular goal total or both teams scoring. Those require their own separate model outputs.

Data source and methodology note

This analysis uses the result probabilities and most likely score values from StatsLook pre-match simulation outputs shared on 20 October 2026. The total-goals and both-teams-to-score probabilities in the Liverpool–Villarreal section come from the detailed StatsLook output for that fixture.

Percentages are retained as displayed in the source. For PSG–Barcelona, 38%, 26% and 37% total 101%; rounded figures may not add up to exactly 100%. Probabilities do not guarantee results, and the outputs displayed on match pages may change over time.

Visit the Champions League overview and the StatsLook Match Centre to explore the latest match data.