Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal: Champions League semi-final clash between two title-seeking giants

Atletico Madrid and Arsenal will face each other in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League semi-final on Wednesday in the Spanish capital.

Both teams head into the tie with a shared historical context: they are among the clubs with the most appearances in the competition without ever winning the trophy.

Arsenal, who reached the final in 2006, have played 223 matches in the European Cup and Champions League without lifting the title. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have featured in 190 matches and have finished as runners-up on three occasions.

The winner of this semi-final will secure a place in the final, where they will face either Paris Saint-Germain or Bayern Munich.

Match expectations

According to pre-match simulation data, the first leg is expected to be highly competitive.

Atletico Madrid recorded a win probability of 35%, while Arsenal slightly edge the projections with 37%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 27.9%.

Tournament projections place Arsenal as favourites to reach the final, with a 72% probability compared to Atletico Madrid’s 28%.

In overall tournament forecasts, Arsenal also lead the title probabilities at 36%, ahead of Bayern Munich (35%), Paris Saint-Germain (21%), and Atletico Madrid (8%).

Head-to-head record

The two sides have already met once in this season’s Champions League, with Arsenal recording a 4-0 home victory during the league phase.

That result matched Atletico Madrid’s joint-heaviest defeat in the competition.

Their only previous knockout meetings came in the 2017-18 Europa League semi-finals, where Atletico Madrid advanced with a 2-1 aggregate victory.

Atletico Madrid also maintain a strong home record against English clubs in Champions League knockout matches. They have never lost such a match, recording three wins and three draws across six games.

Arsenal’s current form

Arsenal remain in contention for both the Premier League title and the Champions League.

However, recent performances have raised questions about their attacking output.

Defensively, the team has been consistent. In the 22 Champions League matches where David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes have all started, Arsenal have conceded just 11 goals and kept 13 clean sheets.

Bukayo Saka’s return from injury provides an additional attacking option. When Saka has featured in this season’s Champions League, Arsenal have averaged 2.6 goals and 2.3 expected goals per match, compared to 1.5 goals and 1.8 xG without him.

Atletico Madrid approach

Atletico Madrid’s tactical setup reflects a structured defensive approach.

They rank among the teams with the highest proportion of time spent in a low defensive block (20.4%) during this season’s Champions League.

Despite this, they apply pressure selectively, averaging 374 high-intensity pressures per match — the fifth-highest among all teams in the competition.

Julian Alvarez has been a key performer, scoring nine goals in the 2025-26 campaign — the most by an Atletico player in a single Champions League season.

He also leads the competition in total high-intensity pressures (853), as well as pressures per 90 minutes.

Players to watch

Atletico Madrid – Antoine Griezmann
Griezmann has been directly involved in 56 of Atletico Madrid’s Champions League goals (40 goals, 16 assists), accounting for 24.2% of the club’s total in the competition.

Arsenal – Viktor Gyokeres
Gyokeres scored twice in Arsenal’s 4-0 win over Atletico earlier this season but has yet to score in the knockout stages, registering six shots across four matches.