Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa: xG Difference Determined the Score

Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa: What the Data Really Says

Nottingham Forest secured a 1-0 win over Aston Villa in the Europa League semi-final, but the numbers suggest a clearer gap between the two sides than the scoreline indicates.

While possession was evenly split at 50% each, the underlying metrics reveal that Nottingham Forest consistently created higher-quality chances and controlled the flow of the game.

xG Difference: The Real Story of the Match

Nottingham Forest: 1.79 xG
Aston Villa: 0.82 xG

This gap is the defining factor of the match.

Although both teams produced a similar number of shots (11 vs 10), the quality of those chances was significantly different. Nottingham Forest generated more dangerous opportunities, particularly from inside the box.

The xG per shot highlights this clearly:

• Nottingham Forest: 0.16 xG per shot

• Aston Villa: 0.08 xG per shot

Nottingham’s chances were nearly twice as valuable on average.

Game Control Beyond Possession

Despite equal possession, control of the game leaned heavily toward Nottingham Forest.

• Pressure dominance: 55.6% Nottingham / 27.8% Aston Villa

This indicates that Nottingham dictated more of the game’s key phases.

Aston Villa, on the other hand, showed high attacking efficiency (72.6%) when progressing forward, but struggled to sustain attacks or generate enough volume.

Finishing Issues Kept the Scoreline Low

Both teams underperformed relative to their expected goals:

• Nottingham Forest: -0.79 xG overperformance

• Aston Villa: -0.82 xG overperformance

This explains why the match ended 1-0 despite higher expected scoring potential.

Based on the data, this game could have produced more goals, but finishing efficiency from both sides fell short.

Key Player Performances

Omari Hutchinson

• 6 successful dribbles

• 4 key passes

• 11 duels won

One of the most influential attacking players on the pitch.

Elliot Anderson

• 85 touches

• 62 accurate passes

Played a central role in Nottingham’s build-up and control.

Chris Wood

• 0.79 xG

• Scored the winning goal (penalty)

Even though the goal came from the spot, he consistently found the most dangerous positions.

Match Summary: Narrow Score, Clear Margin

Nottingham Forest outperformed Aston Villa in key areas:

• Higher expected goals

• Better shot quality

• Stronger control of game phases

Despite the narrow 1-0 result, the data suggests a more comfortable performance from Nottingham.

Conclusion

This match was not decided by possession or volume, but by chance quality.

Nottingham Forest didn’t just win the game — they created better opportunities and eventually converted their advantage into a result.